Template:Past, Present, and Future of Cannabis Laboratory Testing and Regulation in the United States/Future of cannabis regulation, testing, and market trends/Lab testing

5.2 Lab testing

Future-looking estimates on cannabis lab testing are more difficult to find. The primary numbers being floated around originate from a June 2015 market report published by GreenWave Advisors titled Marijuana lab testing: An in depth analysis of investing in one of the industry’s most attractive plays. GreenWave suggested that if the U.S. were to quickly legalize cannabis at the federal level, lab testing revenues alone would be $553 million by 2020, $866 million including related activities such as data analysis and consulting. Another forward-looking statement by Research and Markets in March 2017 suggested the cannabis testing market across the globe could be valued at $1.4 billion by 2021, affected positively by legalization of medical cannabis, laboratory growth, and information technology adoption, negatively by analytical instruments' high costs and a "dearth of skilled professionals." A more conservative number was offered by Coherent Market Insights in July 2018, suggesting a global market at $1.5 billion by 2026, with Global Market Insights suggesting in July 2019 a number closer to $2.0 billion.

As for advances in cannabis lab testing, Kuzdzal et al. of Shimadzu envision a future where improvements in standardization, quality control, and research will shift what is tested and how it's tested:

The cannabis industry and cannabis testing are in their infancies. As the need for better quality control continues and standardization is introduced, it is likely that lower limits for the various cannabis contaminants will be established and regulations will be introduced. Mass spectrometry will likely play a greater role in quantitation as detection levels are lowered and confirmatory tests are required. The health benefits of terpenes present in cannabis will also provide a fertile area of scientific research. CBD, CBG and other compounds appear to have a synergistic relationship with each other as well as with various THC forms and terpenes. This field needs much more investigation to determine mechanisms of action, bioavailability and health benefits.

Lab testing of cannabis should continue to provide more exact and useful results as methods and standards continue to evolve. Disparity of results between two labs for the same sample are continuing to narrow as states increasingly add testing requirements to their cannabis legislature. Those testing requirements are increasingly based off a growing body of recommendations, guidance, and standards developed by the likes of the Americans for Safe Access Foundation (ASAF), American Herbal Pharmacopoeia (AHP), American Herbal Products Association (AHPA), Association of Official Agricultural Chemists (AOAC), American Oil Chemists' Society (AOCS), and the Association of Public Health Laboratories. Already, the groundwork for standard methods is being created by the AOAC and ASTM International, which continue to work on standardizing the determination and quantitation of cannabinoid concentrations, residual solvents, and pesticide amounts. Proficiency tests such as the Emerald Test, which allows multiple labs to test an anonymous sample and compare results, should also continue to drive improved performance from cannabis testing labs.

5.2.1 Consolidation

Another potential trend to keep an eye on with these testing laboratories: consolidation. Currently there's not a lot of data on the extent consolidation has affected the number of cannabis testing labs or how they operate; the industry is arguably still in its infancy. Regardless, mentions in press and practical examples demonstrate that consolidation is a real concern for the industry, if not now in the future. Suggestion of such came from Steep Hill Halent's CEO David Lampach in late 2013, anticipating "huge consolidation in general and fewer companies as a result." The previously mentioned GreenWave Advisors as well as CannaSafe Analytics and Kramer Holcomb Sheik have also lent their voices to this idea in recent years.

In the fall of 2019, some discussion of California's laboratory testing market suggested consolidation could still occur. However, given that a majority of the state's labs are likely not anywhere close to full capacity, it's important to note that it could be an indicator of California's market not reaching fully saturated potential. Additionally, the likelihood of new labs opening up will be low due to the lack of saturation. This doesn't necessarily preclude lab consolidation, but it may be possible that labs with buying power could still consider purchasing other labs in order to gain a bigger piece of the pie. In some cases—where it's actually legal—licensed producers are acquiring laboratories. In Canada, for example, several producers have acquired licensed cannabis testing and research laboratories to bring them in-house, citing greater flexibility and more security for proprietary testing and research. Even in the U.S., consolidation among not just labs but also growers and distributors is not uncommon and may continue as the industry further continues to evolve.